We’re back! And just in time for some 2019-20 NBA playoff first-round predictions!
Eastern Conference
(8) Orlando Magic vs (1) Milwaukee Bucks
The Orlando Magic made the playoffs! And their reward? Getting steamrolled by Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks in round one. This shouldn’t be much of a series. The Bucks have picked up right where they left off before the months-long hiatus, and their combination of perimeter scoring and Giannis dominance will be too much for the overmatched Magic to handle. You never know though, maybe Orlando will benefit from “home-court” advantage and produce a bit of Magic (sorry, it was right there) to start these playoffs… but probably not.
Prediction: 4-0, Milwaukee Bucks
(7) Brooklyn Nets vs (2) Toronto Raptors
The Raptors headed into this season down a star player – a superstar player – in Kawhi Leonard, and many people (including us) believed they would take a significant step back as a result. However, that has not been the case. Rather than heading toward irrelevance, Toronto has launched itself into the conference final conversation. Pascal Siakam continues to reward the faith the franchise placed in him, and other players – like Fred VanVleet – have shown up as well, turning a team expected to finish 5th or 6th in the East at the beginning of the year into a legitimate contender. Expect the Raptors to advance in the first round without much difficulty, as they face a Nets team that’s not awful by any means, but isn’t ready to challenge a team as good as Toronto without Kyrie Irving and a healthy Kevin Durant.
Prediction: 4-0, Toronto Raptors
(6) Philadelphia 76ers vs (3) Boston Celtics
Here’s where things start to get interesting. After an offseason that included adding Al Horford and Josh Richardson, as well as signing Tobias Harris to a long-term extension, the Sixers find themselves as the 6 seed in the Eastern Conference. Not only that, they will play these playoffs without one of their young stars and franchise centerpieces, Ben Simmons. Boston, on the other hand, has managed to answer the questions that were asked of it heading into this year, as its production has not dropped off following departures of some key pieces in Horford and Kyrie Irving. Boston has looked the more cohesive team throughout this season, as well as in the bubble games thus far, but the Sixers did take the regular season series 3-1. Even without Simmons, the talent on Philadelphia’s roster – lead by Joel Embiid – is enough to immediately propel the team into title contention if the players can play together. It’s a matter of which Sixers team shows up; the dysfunctional one that allowed T.J. Warren to light it up for 53 points, or the one that lost only twice at home all season.
Prediction: 4-3, Boston Celtics
(5) Miami Heat vs (4) Indiana Pacers
In another enticing matchup, the Pacers square off against the Heat in round one, looking to continue the momentum they’ve built while playing without Domantas Sabonis. Both of these teams have shown they’re more than just glorified practice squads for the East’s top teams to warm up against this season, as some thought they would be. Jimmy Butler has taken the leadership role for a young, hungry Heat team that believes it can beat anyone, while T.J. Warren has shown the Pacers that they don’t need superstars to knock off top teams. This is a series about momentum, and it seems like whichever team can seize it first will be able to ride its wave and advance. Choosing which team that will be isn’t easy – these two sides were separated by just one win at the end of the regular season – but since we have to make a prediction, we’re going with the Heat. Although it’s a fairly young team, the Heat have been a handful all season, and they haven’t had many skids either. They seem to be able to put bad games behind them, ensuring that they go into each contest with the belief that they can win.
Prediction: 4-2, Miami Heat
Western Conference
(8) Portland Trail Blazers vs (1) Los Angeles Lakers
This could turn out to be one of the best series of this first round. For much of the season, the Lakers have looked every bit as good as the talent on their roster suggested they could be. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, have clawed their way into the playoffs thanks to some all-star performances by Damian Lillard, and seem poised to give the Lakers a tough first round matchup. What makes this such an intriguing pairing is that, unlike the East’s 1 vs 8 seed contest, the Blazers could steal a game or two from the Lakers if LeBron James and team come out sluggish or unfocused. This is a team that seems to be able to beat anyone on any given night, and if LA can’t come up with a game plan to slow down Lillard, they could find themselves down a game or two in the series. There’s a reason the Lakers finished the regular season at the top of the West, though. Led by James and Anthony Davis, this team can defend and put points on the board from anywhere on the court. Unless Jusuf Nurkic can establish himself in the paint – not an easy task when facing Davis – Portland will have to hope its stellar backcourt duo of Lillard and CJ McCollum can lift it to the second round. We think the Lakers will be too much for the Trail Blazers, but don’t be surprised if each game – and the series – isn’t as one-sided as a 1 vs 8 matchup might suggest.
Prediction: 4-1, Los Angeles Lakers
(7) Dallas Mavericks vs (2) Los Angeles Clippers
Imagine how the Clippers must feel – they finish the regular season as the second seed in the West, and as a reward for that effort they get to play Luka Doncic and the Mavericks in round one. This series is going to be fun for the fans, even if not for the Los Angeles team that has a much harder opponent than it might have thought it would at the beginning of the season. It’s a series punctuated by two stars – one is arguably the greatest player in the NBA right now, and the other could very well assume that mantle in a few short years. But while the matchup between Kawhi Leonard and Luka Doncic should be an entertaining one, the Mavericks just don’t have the depth to seriously challenge the Clippers. Even with a resurgent Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks don’t seem to have the scoring prowess that will be necessary to send home an LA team with defensive talent at each position. The Clippers are a deeper team and a more experienced one, so while this series will be a highlight of the first round for fans, it likely won’t be an extended one.
Prediction: 4-1, Los Angeles Clippers
(6) Utah Jazz vs (3) Denver Nuggets
This series is one that could fly under the radar as far as neutral fan interest goes – it doesn’t have the marquee stars that draw a large audience of spectators who aren’t fans of one team or the other. However, this series could end up being one of the most closely contested of the first round. The Nuggets took a big step forward last season, and have continued that momentum through this year’s regular season so far. Utah’s last few seasons have been defined by inconsistency, but defeating Denver in the first round of the playoffs could be the boost the team needs to start playing at a higher level on a nightly basis. Denver’s big task will be ensuring that Donovan Mitchell doesn’t get rolling, and if it can do that – an assignment that just got simpler now that Mike Conley has left the Orlando bubble for the birth of his son – it figures to be smooth sailing into round two for the Nuggets. This could be an entertaining set of games – it could even be a close set of games – but we think the Nuggets will use their postseason experience to get past Utah.
Prediction: 4-1, Denver Nuggets
(5) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (4) Houston Rockets
As usual, James Harden leads a Rockets team that’s capable of putting up lots of points every time it takes the floor. That doesn’t come as much of a surprise to anyone who’s watched the NBA over the past four or five seasons. What has been somewhat unexpected has been the success of the Oklahoma City Thunder this year. After trading Paul George to the Clippers, this looked like it would be the start of a rebuild for OKC. Instead they’ve surprised even themselves with their play. Chris Paul is at the forefront of a young team that’s matured much more quickly than many thought it would heading into the season. If it can pull off a series win over the Rockets, the implications for both teams would be huge. OKC could realize it’s just one or two key pieces away from contending for a championship, and Houston could see its title window closing rapidly and look to overhaul its Harden-centric roster. For that upset to happen, the Thunder will need to prevent James Harden from scoring in droves. It sounds simple enough, but that game plan hasn’t worked for many teams that have faced the Rockets in recent years. But if anyone can teach a group of young players the subtle advantages of smart basketball, it’s CP3. We’re going with the upset.
Prediction: 4-3, Oklahoma City Thunder